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A new Schar School of Policy and Government and Washington Post poll released today shows several Virginia Congressional House seats could flip parties in November’s elections.
The poll shows one Democrat ahead in a district held by Republicans for decades and another modestly behind in a deeply red district that President Donald Trump carried by double digits just two years ago.
Voters in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, considered the national bellwether for control of the House, narrowly favor Democrat Shannon Taylor, Henrico County’s commonwealth’s attorney, over 10-term incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R). Taylor received 50 percent of the likely voters’ approval, with Wittman trailing at 46 percent.
In Virginia’s 5th District, Republican incumbent John McGuire holds a narrow margin with 51 percent over Democrat challenger and former congressman Tom Perriello. The Post describes Perriello as “modestly” behind, despite being in a district Trump won by double digits in 2024.
“That these two GOP-leaning districts are so competitive tells all,” Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School, told The Post. “The national climate is driving everything this year and even Republican incumbents who otherwise should be comfortable are struggling.”
The polling was conducted September 23–28 among likely voters. The story is here in the October 1 editor of The Washington Post.